Operation Epic Fury — Iran, 2026
Real-time estimate of what this conflict costs American taxpayers, updated every second.
Homelessness, student debt, crumbling schools, uninsured families — this money could have solved them. Instead, it's smoke and shrapnel.
Each missile fired is a school not built, a person not insured, a family not housed. These are the choices being made in your name.
This war already exceeds the annual budgets of entire federal agencies. Watch it surpass program after program in real time.
From the first deployment order to right now, the cost curve only goes in one direction — up. Every second adds thousands more.
$630 million spent just getting into position. Carrier groups, aircraft deployments, and munitions pre-positioned across the Gulf — before the war even started.
$630M total. Sources: Elaine McCusker (AEI) via WSJ, JFeed, WaPo, TRANSCOM rates
| Component | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
Lincoln CSG transit (Philippines → Arabian Sea) | $56.0M | $65.0M | $72.0M |
Ford CSG transit (Caribbean → Middle East) | $80.0M | $97.0M | $112.0M |
Fighter/support aircraft deployment (150+ aircraft) | $120.0M | $160.0M | $200.0M |
Munitions & supplies pre-positioning (170+ cargo flights) | $80.0M | $115.0M | $150.0M |
THAAD/Patriot battery deployments | $40.0M | $60.0M | $80.0M |
B-2 bomber mission preparation | $15.0M | $20.0M | $30.0M |
| Total | $391.0M | $517.0M | $644.0M |
Over $200 million a day — that's about $2,350 per second, around the clock. Personnel, fuel, aircraft, naval operations, and intelligence all running 24/7.
| Component | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
Personnel (~50,000 deployed) | $25.0M | $40.0M | $60.0M |
Naval forces (1 CSG active: Lincoln; Bush in transit; Ford returning home; 7 DDGs, 6 LCS) | $22.5M | $29.0M | $36.7M |
Aircraft operations (13 types) | $30.0M | $48.0M | $70.0M |
Fuel & logistics | $10.0M | $20.0M | $30.0M |
Non-tracked ordnance (JDAMs, SDBs, small arms) | $15.0M | $35.0M | $55.0M |
C4ISR / cyber / space | $6.0M | $10.0M | $15.0M |
Overhead & unmodeled costs | $20.0M | $45.0M | $55.0M |
| Total | $128.5M | $227.0M | $321.7M |
Every strike, every barrage, every loss — documented with timestamps, costs, and sources. The full chronology of escalation.
AEI Apr 28: Iran damaged 70 structures across 11 US bases in 7 countries. Pentagon told Congress the war cost $25B — independent sources put the real bill at $40-50B once reconstruction and inflation-adjusted replacement are included.
AEI Apr 28 inventory: 70 structures across 11 US bases in 7 countries. Sources: AEI (McCusker/Ferrari Apr 28), TRT World OSINT, NBC, CENTCOM, ABC News satellite imagery, Bellingcat
| Location | Damage | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE — Al-Ruwais Industrial City | THAAD AN/TPY-2 radar destroyed | $400.0M | $500.0M | $600.0M |
| Kuwait — Camp Arifjan, Ali Al Salem, Camp Buehring | 3 radomes destroyed at Arifjan, 8 buildings at Ali Al Salem (struck twice), 6 KIA; CH-47F Chinook destroyed at Buehring by Shahed-136 (~Apr 3); CH-53E Super Stallion destroyed at Ali Al Salem (Apr 6 drone strike, +$87M — Southfront satellite imagery, medium confidence); 15 US wounded at Ali Al Salem drone strike (Apr 6) | $88.0M | $231.0M | $337.0M |
| Bahrain — Fifth Fleet HQ | 2 AN/GSC-52B SATCOM terminals + warehouse complex destroyed by fire (satellite imagery Mar 29) | $100.0M | $150.0M | $200.0M |
| Qatar — Al-Udeid Air Base | AN/FPS-132 Block 5 early-warning radar destroyed by Iranian ballistic missile | $900.0M | $1.100B | $1.300B |
| Iraq (Erbil), UAE (Jebel Ali) | Multiple facilities struck, assessments ongoing | $50.0M | $100.0M | $200.0M |
| Saudi Arabia — Prince Sultan Air Base | AN/TPY-2 THAAD radar destroyed by Iranian ballistic missile (confirmed by satellite imagery) | $400.0M | $500.0M | $600.0M |
| Jordan — Muwaffaq Salti Air Base | AN/TPY-2 THAAD radar destroyed by Iranian precision strike | $400.0M | $500.0M | $600.0M |
| UAE — Sader Military Installation | THAAD battery site — 4 buildings damaged incl. radar vehicle sheds | $400.0M | $500.0M | $600.0M |
| UAE — Al Dhafra Air Base (Mar 1 strike) | Satellite antennas and structures damaged by Iranian BMs; THAAD intercepted some incoming threats | $10.0M | $25.0M | $50.0M |
| UAE — Al Dhafra Air Base (Mar 15 strike) | Second strike — hangars shredded by fire per satellite imagery; workshops housing UAE Saab GlobalEye aircraft (~$1B each) damaged — contents unconfirmed | $15.0M | $30.0M | $60.0M |
| Saudi Arabia — Prince Sultan Air Base (KC-135 damage) | 5 KC-135 Stratotankers damaged on ground by Iranian missile strike — all repairable, not written off | $5.0M | $15.0M | $25.0M |
| Saudi Arabia — Prince Sultan Air Base (KC-135s + E-3 destroyed) | 3 KC-135 Stratotankers destroyed + 1 E-3G AWACS destroyed by Iranian barrage (6 BMs + 29 drones), 15 US troops wounded | $400.0M | $480.0M | $620.0M |
| Saudi Arabia — Prince Sultan Air Base (second E-3 damaged) | Second E-3G Sentry AWACS sustained heavy damage in Mar 27 Iranian barrage — not confirmed write-off, under assessment | $20.0M | $80.0M | $270.0M |
| UAE — Al Dhafra Air Base (AEI Apr 28 expanded tally) | Full structural inventory revealed post-ceasefire: 2 admin buildings, 2 small hangars, 1 medical clinic, 6 fuel storages, 1 barracks — far more than initial $25M Mar 1 estimate | $180.0M | $260.0M | $380.0M |
| Qatar — Al Udeid Air Base (runway damage) | Partial runway damage + warehouse roof burnout (Sentinel-2). Host of CENTCOM CAOC. Distinct from AN/FPS-132 radar already booked | $80.0M | $150.0M | $250.0M |
| Kuwait — Shuaiba Port | 1 administrative building destroyed (site of Mar 1 strike that killed 6 US service members) — formally inventoried in AEI Apr 28 compilation | $8.0M | $18.0M | $30.0M |
| Total damage at time of loss | $3.456B | $4.639B | $6.122B | |
Forward-looking cost on top of the damage above — base reconstruction (AEI estimate with 30% wartime contingency) plus the production-cost premium between original procurement and 2026 replacement. Pentagon Comptroller acknowledged Apr 29 these costs are not in the FY2027 $1.5T DoD budget.
| Category | Detail | Timeline | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base infrastructure rebuild (11 bases, 70 structures) | AEI compiled inventory of 70 damaged/destroyed structures across Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE — includes engineering, debris removal, UXO handling, country-specific construction premiums, and 30% wartime contingency for material scarcity | 1-3 years | $3.800B | $5.000B | $6.500B |
| AN/TPY-2 THAAD radar replacement premium (×4) | Replacing 4 destroyed THAAD radars at 2026 production cost adds ~$1.1B above their booked $500M-each value. Production capacity binding constraint — may need to divert allied orders (South Korea, Saudi, Romania) | 3-5 years | $600.0M | $1.100B | $1.600B |
| AN/FPS-132 BMEWS radar replacement premium | Only ~10 of these radars exist globally. Single-unit production run, supply-chain reconstitution, LRDR cross-program impacts add ~$400M premium above $1.1B booked value. Lead-time-bound: 5-7 years to full operational capability | 5-7 years | $200.0M | $400.0M | $600.0M |
| E-3G Sentry → E-7 Wedgetail replacement premium | E-3 production line is closed. Replacements must be E-7 Wedgetail at ~$700M flyaway each — premium ~$430M per airframe over E-3's $270M booked replacement value, applied to 2 lost airframes | 3-6 years | $700.0M | $900.0M | $1.100B |
| KC-135 → KC-46 Pegasus replacement premium (×5) | KC-135 production ended in 1965. 5 lost tankers (2 mid-air collision Mar 12 + 3 destroyed at PSAB Mar 27) must be replaced with KC-46 at ~$240M each vs $70M booked KC-135 replacement value | 2-4 years | $600.0M | $850.0M | $1.000B |
| AN/GSC-52B SATCOM terminal replacement premium (×3) | 2 destroyed at Bahrain 5th Fleet HQ + 1 at Camp Buehring. Replacements need current shielding/anti-jam upgrades; long-lead RF chain components drive timeline | 1-3 years | $80.0M | $130.0M | $200.0M |
| Munitions surge production premium | 10-25% premium above the $15-40B munitions replenishment line — captures wartime overtime, second-shift, supplier qualification, capacity expansion, and allied-order displacement | 3-5 years | $1.500B | $2.500B | $4.000B |
| Total reconstruction & replacement premium | $7.480B | $10.880B | $15.000B | ||
| Combined damage + rebuild bill | $10.936B | $15.519B | $21.122B | ||
A $4M Patriot interceptor to shoot down a $20,000 drone. A 200:1 cost ratio that is economically unsustainable — and production can't keep pace.
Iran launched 771+ ballistic missiles and 906+ drones at US bases across the Gulf. Sources: Bloomberg, American Prospect, CSIS, Defence Express, Asia Times
| Interceptor Type | Unit Cost | Qty Fired | Total Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
THAAD interceptor | $15,000,000 | 300 | $4.500B |
Patriot PAC-3 MSE | $4,000,000 | 1245 | $4.980B |
SM-6 (Standard Missile 6) | $5,300,000 | 200 | $1.060B |
SM-3 Block IB | $12,000,000 | 33 | $396.0M |
SM-3 Block IIA (Diego Garcia IRBM intercept, Mar 21) | $28,000,000 | 1 | $28.0M |
| Total | 1779 | $11.630B |
Tomahawks, JDAMs, JASSMs — precision weapons that take years to manufacture, expended in hours. Each one costs more than most Americans earn in a year.
| Item | Unit Cost | Repl. Cost | Qty | Line Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tomahawk Block V (qty revised Apr 15: 19FortyFive + The National News Apr 7 converge on 850) | $3.5M | $3.5M | 850 | $2.975B |
JASSM-ER (Bloomberg Apr 4: bulk of global stockpile deployed; pre-war ~2,300, ~425 remain) | $1.5M | $1.7M | 1,875 | $2.813B |
GBU-57 MOP | $3.5M | $4.0M | 8 | $28.0M |
GBU-31 JDAM | $25K | $30K | 3,000 | $75.0M |
PrSM (HIMARS) | $2.5M | $3.0M | 20 | $50.0M |
AGM-88 HARM | $870K | $950K | 45 | $39.1M |
AIM-120 AMRAAM | $1.1M | $1.2M | 30 | $33.0M |
LUCAS one-way attack drone | $35K | $35K | 200 | $7.0M |
F-15EX airframes lost (friendly fire) | $103.0M | $103.0M | 3 | $309.0M |
Harpoon / NSM (anti-ship) | $1.8M | $2.0M | 40 | $72.0M |
Mk-48 ADCAP Mod 7 torpedo | $4.2M | $4.2M | 1 | $4.2M |
MQ-9 Reaper UAV lost (24 total: 3 early losses, 2 shot down Mar 7, 6 additional through Mar 9, 1 Bandar Abbas Mar 13, 1 Bushehr Mar 22, 1 Shiraz Mar 27, 1 Strait of Hormuz Mar 29, 1 Isfahan Apr 1, 1 post-Apr 3, +7 additional Apr 1–9 per CBS/Jim LaPorta Apr 9) | $30.0M | $30.0M | 24 | $720.0M |
KC-135 Stratotanker lost (mid-air collision, Iraq, Mar 12 — 2 aircraft: 1 destroyed, 1 substantial damage) | $70.0M | $240.0M | 2 | $140.0M |
F-35A Lightning II damaged (Iranian ground fire, Mar 19 — emergency landing, likely write-off) | $82.0M | $82.0M | 1 | $82.0M |
KC-135 Stratotanker destroyed (PSAB Iranian strike, Mar 27 — 3 destroyed on flight line per satellite imagery) | $70.0M | $240.0M | 3 | $210.0M |
E-3G Sentry AWACS destroyed (PSAB Iranian strike, Mar 27 — rear fuselage + rotodome burned out, confirmed by War Zone/DSA imagery) | $270.0M | $270.0M | 1 | $270.0M |
F-15E Strike Eagle shot down over Iran (494th FS, Apr 3 — pilot rescued Apr 3, WSO rescued Apr 5) | $87.0M | $87.0M | 1 | $87.0M |
A-10C Thunderbolt II lost (Persian Gulf, Apr 3 — crashed during CSAR mission for F-15E crew, pilot rescued) | $18.8M | $18.8M | 1 | $18.8M |
MC-130J Commando II destroyed (CSAR mission, Iran, Apr 4-5 — 2 deliberately destroyed to prevent capture at forward airstrip near Isfahan) | $114.0M | $114.0M | 2 | $228.0M |
MH-6 Little Bird helicopters destroyed (CSAR mission, Iran, Apr 4-5 — Night Stalkers, 4 destroyed at forward landing site; revised from 2 per The War Zone + aviation-safety.net incident record Apr 11) | $10.0M | $10.0M | 4 | $40.0M |
KC-46 Pegasus aerial refueling tanker destroyed (Prince Sultan AB, Mar 27 — confirmed by Southfront satellite imagery Apr 8; in same Iranian barrage as 3 KC-135s + 1 E-3G AWACS; not captured in original Mar 27 event) | $200.0M | $200.0M | 1 | $200.0M |
CH-47F Chinook destroyed (Camp Buehring, Kuwait, ~Apr 3 — Shahed-136 drone strike, cockpit/rotor destroyed, write-off) | $44.0M | $44.0M | 1 | $44.0M |
MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone lost (Persian Gulf, Apr 9 — Iranian missile strike near Goruk ~34km offshore; US Navy confirmed Apr 15; squawked 7700/7400 emergency codes before disappearing from ADS-B at 52,000ft; first-ever MQ-4C combat loss) | $244.0M | $244.0M | 1 | $244.0M |
CH-53E Super Stallion destroyed (Ali Al Salem AB, Kuwait, Apr 6 drone strike — confirmed by Southfront satellite imagery post-Apr 11; medium confidence) | $87.0M | $87.0M | 1 | $87.0M |
| Total | 6,115 | $8.776B |
Carrier strike groups, fighter squadrons, tankers, bombers — the most expensive military machinery ever built, burning fuel and flight hours around the clock.
Behind every number is a person. Service members, civilians, families — the cost that no dollar figure can capture.
Oil price shocks, shipping disruptions, diplomatic fallout, regional destabilization — costs that extend far beyond the battlefield.
Every figure is sourced, cross-referenced, and documented. 30+ sources from DoD, CRS, GAO, and independent researchers. Full transparency — no black boxes.